The annual Christmas spending forecast from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan is the most eagerly awaited prediction in the nation’s retail calendar, especially as NSW and Victoria rebound from months-long lockdowns.
The ARA and its key research partner are predicting that this year’s pre-Christmas spending splurge will exceed 2019 pre-pandemic levels to reach $58.8 billion.
NSW will lead the charge with an estimated spend of $18.285 billion, followed by Victoria ($15.418 billion), Queensland ($12.09 billion), Western Australia ($6.48 billion), South Australia ($3.604 billion), Tasmania ($1.261 billion), the ACT ($1.128 billion) and the Northern Territory ($565 million).
Food, as always, is the top category with expected sales of $23.915 billion, followed by household goods ($10.145 billion), Other Retailing, including beauty and personal care, ($8.945 billion), hospitality ($8.016 billion) clothing, footwear and accessories ($4.721 billion) and department stores ($3.092 billion).
There’s a lot of cheer in these numbers, with the overall trend looking positive, and that is great news for small businesses and discretionary retailers who have suffered some of the longest lockdowns in the world this year, said Paul Zahra, CEO of the ARA. “The Christmas trading period is critical as it’s the time when most discretionary retailers make up two-thirds of their profits for the year.”
No one believed that spending this Christmas could match the highs of last year, noted Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan. “But as the population emerges from the most punishing crisis in a hundred years, shoppers are looking to reward themselves and their families. The sales aren’t all going to be in-store, however. The Covid five-year acceleration means many more Australians are shopping online, so this Christmas we will see much more of a mix between in-store and online shopping.”